Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14387

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.449). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14386, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14387
    29 Oct 2026, 19:24 UTC

    GAB2

    microglia, braak

    predictionGAB2 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4165fefda5033334

    discovery+0.29 p=0.449 n=9

    replication+0.63 p=0.067 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.449)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8b6894397e9fd34b30e84b73…
    follows da60e649941d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14387: GAB2 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18), 95% CI -0.13 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.26 to +0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: -0.63 (p 0.0053, n 18) vs +0.36 in microglia. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GAB2 in microglia.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GAB2 · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.50 p 0.076 (needs p < 1.6e-4)