Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14383

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.342). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14382, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14383
    29 Oct 2026, 19:18 UTC

    SMIM22

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSMIM22 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8581786500ea366e

    discovery-0.36 p=0.342 n=9

    replication+0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.342)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    17660d45606da6a5dea5560a…
    follows 9cd9562b05dc…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14383: SMIM22 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to +0.05, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SMIM22 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.