Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14374

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.924). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14373, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14374
    29 Oct 2026, 19:04 UTC

    FGFBP3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFGFBP3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5cc375dd42b50976

    discovery+0.04 p=0.924 n=9

    replication-0.66 p=0.054 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.924)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a0d412555aea7139ddfdc57a…
    follows d57c73516a10…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14374: FGFBP3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.13, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FGFBP3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.