Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14371

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.209). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14370, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14371
    29 Oct 2026, 19:02 UTC

    SCAMP3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSCAMP3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf83e9ae95a82253f

    discovery+0.46 p=0.209 n=9

    replication+0.41 p=0.269 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.209)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c3dfe991c2178feb23b8be87…
    follows 8582ab28d0a1…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14371: SCAMP3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.14 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCAMP3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.