Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14365

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.474). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14364, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14365
    29 Oct 2026, 18:53 UTC

    ABCG8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionABCG8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7b767bb78fbcbd5a

    discovery-0.27 p=0.474 n=9

    replication-0.61 p=0.078 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.474)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    984ca458727ecd99470ef280…
    follows 93ebc50da752…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14365: ABCG8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.63 (p 0.0055, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ABCG8 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.