Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14363

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.243). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14362, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14363
    29 Oct 2026, 18:50 UTC

    ZDHHC24

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZDHHC24 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda036504f8099abb9

    discovery-0.43 p=0.243 n=9

    replication-0.33 p=0.386 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.243)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    25cf137a12c56f5855c42c50…
    follows 288f7d92d281…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14363: ZDHHC24 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.099, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.070, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZDHHC24 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.