Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14348

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.265). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14347, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14348
    29 Oct 2026, 18:28 UTC

    SOX8

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSOX8 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered07330ac438ec29af

    discovery-0.42 p=0.265 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.265)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1d0d9981337700b99f361ec4…
    follows 037029aee569…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14348: SOX8 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to +0.01, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SOX8 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.