Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14345

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.51, p 0.160). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14344, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14345
    29 Oct 2026, 18:23 UTC

    PPP2R2C

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPP2R2C in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered934881121a39dc73

    discovery-0.51 p=0.160 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.347 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.51, p 0.160)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bc57bd4c5bff009ce9aabaaa…
    follows 055c511968b3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14345: PPP2R2C in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.04. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.55 (p 0.019, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPP2R2C in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.