Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14337

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.343). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14336, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14337
    29 Oct 2026, 18:12 UTC

    DDX3X

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDDX3X in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0ecba1d5fcfab38c

    discovery-0.36 p=0.343 n=9

    replication+0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.343)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    97919c907661b2b46fec9652…
    follows 7766d90971fb…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14337: DDX3X in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.21, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DDX3X in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.