Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14331

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.149). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14330, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14331
    29 Oct 2026, 18:03 UTC

    S100P

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionS100P in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5affb3f37e6a5955

    discovery-0.52 p=0.149 n=9

    replication-0.35 p=0.361 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.149)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d04df3e5f1fc4ee18d014cca…
    follows ea6a2152078b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14331: S100P in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.35 (p 0.150, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.14. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.58 (p 0.011, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for S100P in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.