Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14329

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.334). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14328, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14329
    29 Oct 2026, 18:01 UTC

    FBXL6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFBXL6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaa0f8b83a9c15868

    discovery-0.37 p=0.334 n=9

    replication-0.61 p=0.080 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.334)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    20b8bd0f2f1279366244ed8f…
    follows c51bfa6d33dd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14329: FBXL6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.36 (p 0.145, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.030, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FBXL6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.