Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14315

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.148). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14314, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14315
    29 Oct 2026, 17:44 UTC

    PHF2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPHF2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9b64477fcdabe3bd

    discovery-0.52 p=0.148 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.52, p 0.148)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ce6c90a27fd78518c4ef4538…
    follows e2796f879ed2…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14315: PHF2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.59 (p 0.0092, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.39 to -0.21, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PHF2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.