Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14313

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.502). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14312, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14313
    29 Oct 2026, 17:41 UTC

    SUPT20H

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSUPT20H in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4df0c29a5c6322b9

    discovery+0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    replication-0.08 p=0.842 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.502)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5ac3747855d979e682c81d21…
    follows 21da96ddcb37…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14313: SUPT20H in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.16, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SUPT20H in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.