Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14308

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14307, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14308
    29 Oct 2026, 17:33 UTC

    EPM2AIP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEPM2AIP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede62e124251c4fa47

    discovery-0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    replication+0.39 p=0.293 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4fee2f51dc99089eef7b1575…
    follows ec03f487b1b4…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14308: EPM2AIP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.38 (p 0.125, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EPM2AIP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.