Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14304

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.924). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14303, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14304
    29 Oct 2026, 17:27 UTC

    UGT1A6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUGT1A6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb574b9c63ebcd1e7

    discovery+0.04 p=0.924 n=9

    replication+0.82 p=0.0072 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.924)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    973b7b6499c252e0d830f192…
    follows 213bb89947e8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14304: UGT1A6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.35 (p 0.150, n 18), 95% CI -0.14 to +0.70. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.65 (p 0.0034, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.28 to +0.53, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UGT1A6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.