Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14271

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.038; held-out +0.45 p 0.222). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14270, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14271
    29 Oct 2026, 16:46 UTC

    LPAR5

    microglia, braak

    predictionLPAR5 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3010b46687ff1c05

    discovery-0.69 p=0.038 n=9

    replication+0.45 p=0.222 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.69 p 0.038; held-out +0.45 p 0.222)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    9436902c0377a777565e330b…
    follows 2e610332f679…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14271: LPAR5 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to +0.04, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LPAR5 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.