Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14269

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.61, p 0.078). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14268, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14269
    29 Oct 2026, 16:43 UTC

    EXOSC8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEXOSC8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered69b40bfcc9e80549

    discovery+0.61 p=0.078 n=9

    replication-0.27 p=0.485 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.61, p 0.078)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    105d1aa605af77005553a992…
    follows 0e73bf0498bc…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14269: EXOSC8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.20 (p 0.429, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.09 to +0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EXOSC8 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.