Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14254

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.400). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14253, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14254
    29 Oct 2026, 16:21 UTC

    DOCK8

    microglia, braak

    predictionDOCK8 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered83a4a8beec528cec

    discovery+0.32 p=0.400 n=9

    replication+0.36 p=0.344 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.400)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    61873e906e8ad25af68b9867…
    follows 47ce8bc99321…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14254: DOCK8 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DOCK8 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.