Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14242

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.57, p 0.111). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14241, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14242
    29 Oct 2026, 16:05 UTC

    SH3BP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSH3BP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1779f09c42572e3e

    discovery-0.57 p=0.111 n=9

    replication+0.09 p=0.815 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.57, p 0.111)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8fe8de58dfb9bb7249097b81…
    follows 1c155747029e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14242: SH3BP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.379, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SH3BP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.