Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14234

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.964). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14233, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14234
    29 Oct 2026, 15:56 UTC

    EPB41

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEPB41 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb0af08f2ac66cde0

    discovery-0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    replication+0.06 p=0.888 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.964)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1d71dcfe3b172bd41def5591…
    follows 7a1b0f60611c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14234: EPB41 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.16, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EPB41 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.