Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14206

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.457). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14205, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14206
    29 Oct 2026, 15:16 UTC

    MAFK

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAFK in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered718f256d45336138

    discovery-0.29 p=0.457 n=9

    replication-0.80 p=0.0099 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.457)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    676e3d1c6f90cd9a96b3b415…
    follows 3f5c78f8f048…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14206: MAFK in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.58 (p 0.011, n 18), 95% CI -0.82 to -0.16. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.63 (p 0.0049, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.67 (p 0.0023, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.70 to -0.53, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.58 (p 0.011, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAFK in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.