Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14202

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.927). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14201, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14202
    29 Oct 2026, 15:10 UTC

    TIGD2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTIGD2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3d6ecd98812ddf88

    discovery-0.04 p=0.927 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.599 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.927)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3f511cf13b74997f6f0d6a9b…
    follows 48e0f26d122b…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14202: TIGD2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TIGD2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.