Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14181

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14180, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14181
    29 Oct 2026, 14:39 UTC

    OR4K2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionOR4K2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredff51d2f1966295e0

    discovery-0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    replication+0.44 p=0.234 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.487)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    410f880751885d8ca3d8220a…
    follows ca940bbd8090…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14181: OR4K2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.12, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OR4K2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.