Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14174

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.83 p 0.0053; held-out +0.41 p 0.273). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14173, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14174
    29 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC

    FKTN

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFKTN in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda8ac72dd368400e6

    discovery+0.83 p=0.0053 n=9

    replication+0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.83 p 0.0053; held-out +0.41 p 0.273)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    cd4b545681f9cb86f78b7f71…
    follows f5c59e4ad1f5…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14174: FKTN in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.49 (p 0.039, n 18), 95% CI +0.03 to +0.78. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.45 (p 0.062, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.42 to +0.58, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.49 (p 0.039, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FKTN in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.