Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14169

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.240). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14168, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14169
    29 Oct 2026, 14:25 UTC

    SLC49A3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC49A3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered73585a0b9d4ce9f6

    discovery-0.44 p=0.240 n=9

    replication+0.06 p=0.870 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.240)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3ec5110e66321b4a5558c367…
    follows 6262d4eda5bf…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14169: SLC49A3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.179, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC49A3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.