Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14165

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.613). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14164, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14165
    29 Oct 2026, 14:19 UTC

    EPHA10

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEPHA10 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredac0fc1b84b5c50b7

    discovery-0.20 p=0.613 n=9

    replication-0.16 p=0.672 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.613)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    79774b6264555cc9a3f5f173…
    follows d1856bdda5c4…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14165: EPHA10 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EPHA10 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.