Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14161

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.369). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14160, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14161
    29 Oct 2026, 14:13 UTC

    TTC1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTTC1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2dbe8f5e310ac777

    discovery+0.34 p=0.369 n=9

    replication-0.10 p=0.790 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.369)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    67291db4c405f8663995eda4…
    follows 9c3328fe1648…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14161: TTC1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.01 to +0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TTC1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.