Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14158

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.732). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14157, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14158
    29 Oct 2026, 14:08 UTC

    QSOX1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionQSOX1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered863e523559d263e3

    discovery+0.13 p=0.732 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.204 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.732)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    53cbd0e56ab7b202df944f08…
    follows 470823f2e1ff…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14158: QSOX1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.633, n 18), 95% CI -0.56 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.633, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.67 (p 0.0024, n 18) vs -0.12 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for QSOX1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up QSOX1 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.13 p 0.657 (needs p < 1.6e-4)