Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14156

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14155, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14156
    29 Oct 2026, 14:06 UTC

    POLR2B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPOLR2B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6807793f827caac8

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication+0.20 p=0.607 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6872b1eb6f738662be8d3be2…
    follows e04036c1227e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14156: POLR2B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.23 (p 0.351, n 18), 95% CI -0.26 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.14 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for POLR2B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.