Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14154

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.663). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14153, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14154
    29 Oct 2026, 14:02 UTC

    ZFP69

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZFP69 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered699e2e99177a629e

    discovery-0.17 p=0.663 n=9

    replication+0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.663)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    065fcfa6701bf0714a238a41…
    follows 5dac45fa9f50…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14154: ZFP69 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.14, sign flips 11; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZFP69 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.