Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14141

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.347). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14140, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14141
    29 Oct 2026, 13:42 UTC

    NCMAP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNCMAP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered854cba5ee4bdb5c1

    discovery-0.36 p=0.347 n=9

    replication-0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.347)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e9fe68c17d8c3ea85748c71a…
    follows 8a76272ccb21…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14141: NCMAP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.403, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NCMAP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.