Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14129

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.944). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14128, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14129
    29 Oct 2026, 13:28 UTC

    ST6GAL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionST6GAL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered023b5e451b429350

    discovery-0.03 p=0.944 n=9

    replication+0.77 p=0.015 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.944)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7131abb110a5280382ee76e4…
    follows 899f0c37cb87…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14129: ST6GAL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.34 (p 0.173, n 18), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.53 (p 0.024, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.26 to +0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ST6GAL2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.