Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14125

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14124, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14125
    29 Oct 2026, 13:23 UTC

    SNX12

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSNX12 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered56f013ff54c1f12e

    discovery+0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a2bf9328d28d4d448918c942…
    follows cfb8c41f38f1…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14125: SNX12 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.538, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SNX12 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.