Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14122

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14121, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14122
    29 Oct 2026, 13:17 UTC

    NFIL3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNFIL3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered12fbfcbcbd706954

    discovery-0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    replication+0.51 p=0.161 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f49a3fab4e88f357eb5d82af…
    follows 7a03e6000435…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14122: NFIL3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.14 (p 0.585, n 18), 95% CI -0.35 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NFIL3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.