Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14120

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.443). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14119, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14120
    29 Oct 2026, 13:14 UTC

    CYP2A13

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCYP2A13 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddc3333cadf3b9d5f

    discovery-0.29 p=0.443 n=9

    replication-0.57 p=0.108 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.443)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9204d8ccce4f33616e8ddcc2…
    follows e6893c9e54e0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14120: CYP2A13 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.101, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.079, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.56 (p 0.016, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.57 to -0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.101, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CYP2A13 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.