Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14115

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.840). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14114, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14115
    29 Oct 2026, 13:09 UTC

    MAPK12

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionMAPK12 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede25371a65d1812a6

    discovery-0.08 p=0.840 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.840)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    39c1454390c05bf6537e790d…
    follows 3cf9ef34139b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14115: MAPK12 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.881, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.08, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAPK12 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.