Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14091

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.732). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14090, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14091
    29 Oct 2026, 12:38 UTC

    PCDH19

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPCDH19 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6c2d566fe9422212

    discovery-0.13 p=0.732 n=9

    replication-0.33 p=0.385 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.732)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6eeb0ceb537c6c5f87ae867d…
    follows 9021031ad3ca…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14091: PCDH19 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.579, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.591, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PCDH19 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.