Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14087

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14086, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14087
    29 Oct 2026, 12:32 UTC

    PERM1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPERM1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0162bca8006c3e9a

    discovery+0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    replication-0.53 p=0.146 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1fc94a1604bd497368857ed4…
    follows 975f067b1b70…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14087: PERM1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PERM1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.