Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14071

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.682). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14070, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14071
    29 Oct 2026, 12:13 UTC

    STAG3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSTAG3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcbab6543498109cd

    discovery-0.16 p=0.682 n=9

    replication-0.78 p=0.014 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.682)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    167becf3a7a59c2fd82821da…
    follows 750d83b7e3d7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14071: STAG3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.03. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for STAG3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.