Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14062

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.285). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14061, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14062
    29 Oct 2026, 12:01 UTC

    MYL3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMYL3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf4dda4c8a0d67b2f

    discovery-0.40 p=0.285 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.499 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.285)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3a83d0ac94d64d6805e9e1ca…
    follows 4fd33725ceb1…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14062: MYL3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.037, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18) vs -0.38 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MYL3 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MYL3 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.28 p 0.328 (needs p < 1.6e-4)