Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14056

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.472). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14055, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14056
    29 Oct 2026, 11:53 UTC

    DCUN1D3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDCUN1D3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd09a601b3fee1a1f

    discovery+0.28 p=0.472 n=9

    replication+0.33 p=0.387 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.472)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    56b969ff56c1fe1903e48f08…
    follows 2be39c6e25d0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14056: DCUN1D3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.24 (p 0.337, n 18), 95% CI -0.26 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.12 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DCUN1D3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.