Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14052

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14051, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14052
    29 Oct 2026, 11:48 UTC

    ASF1A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionASF1A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb211ffdd7e454708

    discovery+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.478 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d3f21e8a434e25c43c074f05…
    follows ae4843b985ca…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14052: ASF1A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.20 (p 0.418, n 18), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.12 to +0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ASF1A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.