Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14039

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.123). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14038, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14039
    29 Oct 2026, 11:28 UTC

    RNF123

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRNF123 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4188c57f8f7fff9f

    discovery-0.55 p=0.123 n=9

    replication-0.48 p=0.195 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.123)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2b3cdf61702f47ed62ee3bfc…
    follows 4910e6bd06c5…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14039: RNF123 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18), 95% CI -0.80 to -0.10. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.65 (p 0.0037, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.66 to -0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.66 (p 0.0031, n 18) vs -0.54 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RNF123 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up RNF123 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.15 p 0.594 (needs p < 1.6e-4)