Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14035

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.840). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14034, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14035
    29 Oct 2026, 11:23 UTC

    KCNAB1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKCNAB1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd342f4e7b5b2672b

    discovery-0.08 p=0.840 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.840)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f0ff48474a75abc32e49cd56…
    follows 4541fc74e1a3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14035: KCNAB1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.735, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.04, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNAB1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.