Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14029

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.718). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14028, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14029
    29 Oct 2026, 11:17 UTC

    POU2F2

    microglia, braak

    predictionPOU2F2 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredeb9219b4725f1c59

    discovery-0.14 p=0.718 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.718)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7cca7a270b54b8898e2374b5…
    follows 9888a581e5f6…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14029: POU2F2 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.14, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for POU2F2 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.