Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14023

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.705). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14022, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14023
    29 Oct 2026, 11:08 UTC

    TMEM184B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMEM184B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered49f58f2b8d0c9a20

    discovery-0.15 p=0.705 n=9

    replication-0.66 p=0.053 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.705)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    11d75fbf745b8fbaca1a29f4…
    follows a617bef866bf…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14023: TMEM184B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.48 (p 0.046, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.01. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.59 (p 0.0096, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.65 to -0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18) vs -0.48 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM184B in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up TMEM184B · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.43 p 0.131 (needs p < 1.7e-4)