Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14013

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14012, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14013
    29 Oct 2026, 10:55 UTC

    UBAP2L

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUBAP2L in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1110ef31a002b867

    discovery-0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a0dd64e6d3bdd377bc39dc5b…
    follows 7ac8caebf497…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14013: UBAP2L in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBAP2L in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.