Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14009

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14008, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14009
    29 Oct 2026, 10:49 UTC

    LAMTOR5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLAMTOR5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb45c5128cabdf5a5

    discovery-0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication+0.35 p=0.354 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    841e6bff987d40ee90d9d0e8…
    follows d07bf5a13bf2…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14009: LAMTOR5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.11, sign flips 9; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LAMTOR5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.