Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13997

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.344). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13996, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13997
    29 Oct 2026, 10:32 UTC

    TNFRSF10C

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTNFRSF10C in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6dfdec57ca340cba

    discovery-0.36 p=0.344 n=9

    replication-0.50 p=0.172 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.344)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5f39624bd7e0a44faf433d5c…
    follows 6bc820e8fe28…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13997: TNFRSF10C in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.01. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.087, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.60 (p 0.0083, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.62 to -0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TNFRSF10C in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.