Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13995

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.63, p 0.068). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13994, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13995
    29 Oct 2026, 10:29 UTC

    COX8A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCOX8A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered556dac4fc65702f6

    discovery+0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    replication-0.13 p=0.739 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.63, p 0.068)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d15c82a78a05b16fd7819268…
    follows 675c0ac006ae…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13995: COX8A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for COX8A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.